I think I have whiplash.

For months now, the news out of Washington and Tehran has been hot and cold.

Ceasefire.
Strike.
Framework to end the war.
New attack.
Another framework.

I have stopped trusting any single headline to still mean anything by the weekend.

And here is what surprised me. The market has basically stopped flinching.

Back in the spring, the Iran headline knocked 10% off the S&P.

Look at where we are now. After the last big drawdown, the index clawed all the way back to its pre-conflict high in just eleven trading sessions, according to J.P.Morgan.

Each new shock seems to move things a little less than the one prior. Investors have, quite simply, gotten bored of the war.

I find that fascinating, and a little unnerving. Because while everyone is busy being desensitized to the loud, dramatic risk, the impacts are affecting everyday people around the world.

Tariffs & Inflation. Economic War & Real War.

Two very different animals, and we tend to blur them into one. Let me pull them apart.

The first is the real war. Actual missiles (or drones) flying around, actual disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, and a very real jolt to the price of oil.

Now, also look at the last inflation print.

The culprit is not exactly hiding. Energy prices jumped 24% year over year, gasoline rose 41%, and fuel oil climbed almost 59%.

I wonder why… (*cough cough* Iran War *cough cough*)

Energy alone was responsible for more than 60% of the monthly increase.Call that the price of the shooting war. We pay it at the pump first, and on the shelf a little later.

The second war is the economic one. Tariffs.

And this is the part I find almost funny, because we did this one to ourselves. The average effective US tariff rate just approached 12%, a level we have not seen since the 1940s (Yale Budget Lab).

That’s $1,000 to $1,500 a year in extra cost for the average family, depending on which economist you ask (Tax Foundation).

So why should a beauty newsletter care about oil futures and customs schedules? Because our industry happens to sit right where these two forces meet.

I went down this rabbit hole a few months ago (my Strait of Hormuz piece, if you missed it), and my point still stands.

A shocking amount of your daily routine begins its life as a petrochemical.

The humectants in your moisturizer. The surfactants that give your shampoo its foam.

Then the tariffs land on top. A lot of the finished goods, the packaging, and the actives cross at least one border before they reach your bathroom counter.

Industry estimates put the tariff-driven markup on imported skincare and makeup somewhere between 10% and 60%, with packaging costs alone rising 5 to 10% (BeautyMatter).

Here is the disconnect that keeps nagging me: The market is at record highs, shrugging off missiles, ceasefires, and a blocked Strait of Hormuz like none of it happened.

The everyday American is not shrugging.

They just feel poorer, and until this war truly ends, I don't see that changing.

Stocks are climbing while purchasing power decreases, at least in the way most people live it. And that is rarely a recipe for anything good.

From my perspective, it looks like a bubble 🫧, but tell me what you think: [email protected].

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I hope you are hungry for some finance beauty news.

In this edition, the big houses kept reshuffling their decks.

Coty handed Gucci Beauty back to Kering a year early, clearing the runway for L'Oréal, while Saks emerged from bankruptcy under a brand new name.

The platform builders stayed busy too, with Belle Brands, Country Life, and a former Amazon aggregator all bolting on brands.

And capital kept finding founders, from Bethenny Frankel's stake in dpHUE to first checks for Manasi 7 and Mila.

Let's dive in:

Coty (NYSE: COTY) will transition the Gucci Beauty license back to Kering for roughly $400M, ending its decade-long stewardship a year early and resolving all pending litigation between the two companies.

L'Oréal's (Paris: OR) previously announced 50-year exclusive agreement to develop Gucci fragrances and beauty will now begin July 1, 2027, one year ahead of schedule and pending regulatory approval. Coty says it will direct proceeds toward debt reduction and its core prestige portfolio. Learn more.

Saks Global emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy and rebranded as Exemplar Luxury Group, roughly 18 months after Saks Fifth Avenue's $2.7B acquisition of Neiman Marcus Group formed the company.

The restructuring cut total debt by nearly 75% and secured $500M in exit financing, while the store count fell to 49 as all Saks Off 5th and Neiman Marcus Last Call discount doors closed. CEO Geoffroy van Raemdonck leads the new entity, targeting $9B in GMV by 2030. Learn more.

Yellow Wood Partners, owner of brands such as Suave, ChapStick, Q-tips, Caress, St. Ives, Pond's, and many others, made an unsolicited $30-per-share takeover offer for Edgewell Personal Care (NYSE: EPC), which the board rejected as too low, per Bloomberg.

Edgewell shares jumped ~22% on the report. The company last pursued a major deal six years ago, when the FTC blocked its $1.37B acquisition of Harry's on antitrust grounds.

IFF (NYSE: IFF) secured a $1B loan refinancing from Wells Fargo, per a June 23 SEC filing, replacing $800M of senior notes due September 2026.

The new facility matures in December 2027 and will be repaid with proceeds from IFF's ~$4.3B sale of its food ingredients division to CVC, which is expected to close in Q2 2027. Learn more.

Belle Brands, the Windsong Global-backed platform behind JVN Hair, Pipette, and KVD Beauty, acquired skincare and makeup brand Versed from founder Katherine Power; terms were not disclosed. Learn more.

Country Life, a wellness platform backed by Lion Equity Partners, acquired aromatherapy brand Aura Cacia from Frontier Co-op; terms were not disclosed.

Country Life expects revenue well above $100M post-acquisition and plans to add a fifth brand before seeking an exit. Learn more.

Olsam Group, one of Europe's largest Amazon aggregators, acquired Australian skincare brand Wrinkles Schminkles and rebranded its entire operation as Avenir Collective; terms were not disclosed.

Founded in 2014 by Gabrielle Requena, Wrinkles Schminkles sells reusable medical-grade silicone patches and was bootstrapped to roughly $14M in annual sales. Avenir is positioning as a beauty and personal care platform targeting brands with $15M to $20M in revenue, with plans to add three to five more. Learn more.

Thriving Brands, the US owner of Right Guard, acquired dry shampoo brand Colab and men's grooming range Johnny's Chop Shop from UK-based SLG Brands; terms were not disclosed.

The sale lets SLG refocus on its core licensing business, which produces beauty for fashion names including Paul Smith and Superdry. Learn more.

Style Capital, a Milan-based private equity firm, took a minority stake in French fragrance house Essential Parfums to accelerate its global expansion; terms were not disclosed. It is Style Capital's first beauty investment. Learn more.

THE CENTER has reportedly retained Raymond James to explore a sale of body care brand Saltair, co-founded by influencer Iskra Lawrence, with initial bids due soon.

Saltair is tracking toward roughly $150M in 2026 revenue and recently launched in the UK via Space NK. The Prelude Growth Partners-backed incubator previously sold Naturium to e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) for $355M and Phlur to TSG Consumer Partners, with comps suggesting a valuation as high as $750M, per WWD.

Bethenny Frankel took an ownership stake in premium at-home hair color brand dpHUE and joined as Chief Brand Officer; terms were not disclosed. Learn more.

Divinity Studio made a $1.5M investment in organic Swedish beauty brand Manasi 7, the brand's first outside capital, per Business of Fashion.

Mensch VC and Sticker Ventures backed a $2.5M pre-seed round for sexual wellness brand Mila as it emerged from stealth, per BeautyMatter.

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